The title of the chapter “What Would
Peyton Do?” is taken from a letter Thomas Jefferson wrote to his grandson
declaring that:
I had the good fortune to become
acquainted very early with some characters of very high standing, and to feel
the incessant wish that I could ever become what they were. Under temptations &
difficulties, I would ask myself what would Dr. Small, Mr. Wythe, Peyton
Randolph do in this situation? What course in it will insure me their
approbation? I am certain that this mode of deciding on my conduct, tended more
to its correctness than any reasoning powers I possessed. Knowing the even &
dignified line they pursued, I could never doubt for a moment which of two
courses would be in character for them. Whereas, seeking the same object through
a process of moral reasoning, & with the jaundiced eye of youth, I should often
have erred. From the circumstances of my position, I was often thrown into the
society of horse-racers, card-players, fox hunters, scientific and professional
men, and of dignified men; and many a time have I asked myself in the
enthusiastic moment of the death of a fox, the victory of a favorite horse, the
issue of a question eloquently argued at the bar or in the great council of the
nation, Well, which of these kinds of reputation should I prefer? That of a
horse-jockey? a fox-hunter? an orator? or the honest advocate of my country's
rights? Be assured, my dear Jefferson, that these little returns into ourselves,
this self-catechizing habit, is not trifling nor useless, but leads to the
prudent selection and steady pursuit of what is right."[ii]
The following chapter demonstrates, in
six different Presidential segments, the heuristic value of this
Jeffersonian approach by applying the ethos and wisdom of past 18th
Century presidents to current 21st Century Challenges: The Real
Estate/Mortgage Crisis, States’ Rights, The Global Market, The National Debt,
Energy Independence and The Health Care Crisis. This is an exercise that
the author has thoroughly enjoyed.
Richard Henry Lee of Virginia was
elected President of the United States, in Congress Assembled on November 30,
1784 and served until November 22, 1785. He was the third son of a Thomas Lee,
the "empire builder," who as the 5th son of Richard Lee "the emigrant",
the largest Virginia landowner at the time of his death.
Richard Henry Lee's Presidency was a
busy one, attending to the needs of the new nation. Lee's candor and
straightforwardness bore few secrets. In a November 18, 1784 letter to Samuel
Adams he wrote, "I shall be extremely happy to be aided by your counsels
during my residence in Congress."[iii]Richard Henry Lee's letters are abundant and well-published and consequently
we know that President Lee favored funding the staggering national debt ($6
trillion in today’s dollars) with foreign loans while the
Northwest Territory’s land (Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota) were prepared
for sale. Lee, in fact, reviled import duties and was a staunch opponent of
Congress' willingness to tax the citizens at the Federal level.
As President, Richard Henry Lee learned
that borrowing more foreign money was no longer an option due to the weak dollar
and the government’s inability to pay even the interest on its current debt. His
only option, other then taxes, was the enactment of an Ordinance for the
Northwest Territory that would settle the state territorial claims over the vast
lands. If passed these unencumbered federal holdings, Lee reasoned, would
provide the United States government with seemingly limitless land to sell. Lee
wrote to his friend and colleague Samuel Adams on May 20th:
I hope we shall shortly finish our
plan for disposing of the western Lands to discharge the oppressive public debt
created by the war & I think that if this source of revenue be rightly managed,
that these republics may soon be discharged from that state of oppression and
distress that an indebted people must invariably feel
[iv]
President Lee was successful in
obtaining the enactment of the Land Ordinance of 1785 which set aside a test
tract of land in the Northwest Territory for real estate development.[v]
The federal surveyors divided the land into carefully planned individual square
townships. Each side of the township square was to be six miles in length
containing thirty-six square miles of territory. The township was then divided
into one-square mile sections, with each section receiving its own number and
encompassing 640 acres. Section sixteen was to be set aside for a public school
and sections eight, eleven, twenty-six, and twenty-nine were to provide veterans
of the American Revolution with land as payment for their service during the war
thus greatly reducing the war debt. The government would then sell the remaining
sections at public auction at the minimum bid of 640 dollars per section or one
dollar for an acre of land in each section.
The federal
land that was not in dispute by the Native Americans was eagerly occupied by
western settlers as squatters as they had little respect for the authority of
the United States, in Congress Assembled which at the time was the governing
entity of the United States of America.[vi]
The settlers were correct in their assessment as the federal government failed
to muster the capital necessary to pay magistrates and troops to enforce the
$1.00 per acre fee. With the States no longer in control of the lands and a weak
federal government floundering in debt, the tide of western squatters flowed
into the Northwest Territory. Richard Henry Lee’s plan to fund the federal
government from western land sales imploded and no capital flowed into the
federal treasury from the western lands. The survey system would expand,
however, from this small range in Ohio to the Pacific Ocean and later into
Alaska as the United States expanded its borders during the next two centuries.
Future Presidents would utilize Lee’s system and fund government projects,
public education, railroads, interstate highways and national parks through land
sales and swaps throughout the 19th and 20th Centuries.
Lee's plan was prophetic but like most visionaries he was ahead of its time.
At the end of his presidential term Lee
returned to Virginia and remained active in state politics until 1787 when he
was re-elected to the Confederation Congress as a delegate. Lee voted to revise
the Articles of Confederation resulting in the convening of the 2nd
Constitutional Convention. The convention was chaired by
George Washington who
agreed with Delegate James Madison and other key founders to discard the Constitution of 1777
completely and form an entirely new plan for the federal government. The new
plan was signed by Washington and the other founders on September 17, 1787. When
the new constitution was reported to congress on September 20th, Richard Henry
Lee vehemently opposed its adoption. Despite this and President
Arthur St. Clair's
disappointment in the document's complete dismantling of the Articles of
Confederation, the new constitution was sent to the States for ratification
without any modifications by the United States in Congress Assembled. In an
October 1787 letter to George Mason, Lee warned that the new Federal government
would "… produce a coalition of monarchy of men, military men, aristocrats
and drones, whose noise, impudence and zeal exceeds all belief".[vii]As President, Lee had summed up his philosophy to Samuel Adams in a
March 14, 1785 letter two years earlier stating:
I think sir that the first maxim of a
man who loves liberty should be, never to grant to Rulers an atom of power that
is not most clearly and indispensable necessary for the safety and well being of
Society.[viii]
Richard Henry Lee was the only true
"radical" to win the Presidency of the United States of America, in Congress
Assembled. To his dismay the new executive departments had weaned away the power
of the his office to a shadow of what it was when Samuel Huntington became the
first President of the United States under the Constitution of 1777 in 1781.
The Real Estate/Mortgage Crisis of 2008
The Question proposed by this author is:
What would President Richard Henry Lee Do regarding the current real
estate/mortgage crisis? In 1992 this author, as the President of RE/MAX
of Pennsylvania n/w[ix]
published a white paper that was widely distributed throughout the Keystone
State. In point 12 of my work I wrote:
Part I
September 17, 1787 - Black Wednesday
The white paper, entitled Uncommon
Sense, caught the eye of President George H. W. Bush and this author
traveled to Washington D.C. to meet with the administration’s economic policy
advisors. President Bush lost his re-election bid to
William Jefferson Clinton
in 1992. The economy strengthened and Capitol Hill lost any appetite for
revising the tax code. The residential mortgage time-bomb just kept on ticking
despite numerous attempts, including a run for the U.S. Senate, made by the
author to disable the trigger.
“Klos also warns that the trend
of millions of homeowners utilizing home equity credit lines to pay off short
term consumer debt could thrust America into a depression. "Consumers are being
enticed into saddling their homes with enormous debts to obtain an interest tax
deduction for cars, credit cards, and other consumer good," he explained.
"Should congress fail to correct the current tax law, the economy will continue
its downward trend," he continues, "the jobless recessive trend will climax when
home-owners begin to default on equity mortgages instead of credit card and car
payments. Our country could be faced with millions of Americans loosing their
home because of over-extending prompted by aggressive home equity and mortgage
lending." - Pocono Record, January 25, 1992 “RE/MAX head offers
Bush a recovery Plan”
What was formally proposed in 1992
(above), 1994 (as a U.S. Senate GOP Nominee), 2000, and 2004 and again in 2008
(as an Exhibitor of rare historical documents at the GOP National Convention)
was the rejoining of investment real estate with equities by moving it into the
portfolio federal tax category while capping residential mortgage deductions to
80% of the initial purchase price of a primary and secondary residences.
Additionally, this author sought an easing of loan regulations not to bolster
single family ownership but to enable entrepreneurial families to readily
acquire and renovate mixed-use owner occupied buildings. Small businesses, I
maintained in 1992, “… are the financial back bone of the American economy.”
These measures, I purported, “… would enable small businesses to start-up
and/or expand their ventures by encouraging investment in owner occupied real
estate whose losses could be offset from portfolio tax category gains.”
Uncommon Sense also maintained that providing “owner occupied loans”
with tax incentivesfor mixed use building acquisition would result in
the reestablishment of entrepreneurial families in the town centers all across
America reducing urban sprawl.
Today, many U.S. real estate markets
face mortgage challenges even greater then those conquered in the Great
Depression. Like the 1930’s, struggling homeowners with little or no equity are
finding relief from beleaguered financial institutions who are unable to sell
foreclosed homes to liquefy their mortgage assets. Like the 1930’s struggling
homeowners, with plenty of home equity, find themselves harassed by creditors as
the lenders know their losses can be recouped by Sherriff Sales. In other words
overextended mortgage homeowners are granted relief as lenders have no other
financially sound options. On the other hand, financially challenged homeowners
who did not over leverage their homes face hasty foreclosures. Financial institutions
need cash and it is easily mined from the liquidation of equity rich real estate
of non-liquid homeowners. President Richard Henry Lee, I am sure, would
quickly seek legislation to correct this practice. But what would he do about
the current oversupply of residential real estate and the overflowing REO portfolios?
This is not the first time things have
been tough in marketing real estate. In my three decades of experiences as a
real estate preservationist
[x]
there have been unbalanced markets stifling the American economy. In the 70’s
it was the interest rates (James Earl Carter Administration). In the 80’s it
was the author’s local economy (Pittsburgh manufacturing). In the early 90’s it
was mortgage money unavailability to meet baby boomer demands seeking larger and
more prestigious single family residences. Today it is the collapse of
artificial value precipitated by aggressive Wall Street lending artfully
designed to capitalize on the home mortgage tax deduction. Together, along with
baby boomer greed, this “tax deductible easy money mix” led to imprudent
home equity leveraging and wild residential real estate speculation. The end
result is a large inventory of residential homes primarily built to flip. These
are homes that the boomers no longer want and their children can not afford
hence depreciation and deterioration. So how does one market such an albatross
of inventory in a wary lender market? What would President Richard Henry Lee
do?
Realtors had their selling challenges in
unbalanced markets before. They also had seen mini-revolutions in their
industry with franchising, then the MLS, then the real estate 100% agent
commission concept, and now the internet For Sale By Owner phenomenon.
Outside of these marketing examples, the real estate trade industry and its
markets has not changed much since the Great Depression. Today, Realtors can no
longer (and never really could) justify a $60,000 commission on a million dollar
house. The era of large houses and big commissions is over. Baby Boomers are
more inclined to have two small houses in different parts of the country and
migrate with the seasons. Real estate offices will slim down to FedEx-Kinko
models and work at www speeds doing more transactions per person with fewer
people in fewer offices. The decade of the 10’s will usher in real estate
warehouse shopping where 4000 square foot plus homes will deteriorate, due to
dwindling demand and energy costs, much like the old Northeast mansions did in
the 60’s and 70’s.
So here we are, September 17, 2008, and
the single family home mortgage deduction with no other real estate tax
incentives failed miserably to protect America’s foundation of prosperity, home
equity. In the end the 1986 Tax Law created an artificial value bonanza for
mortgage lenders who concocted little or no money down financing schemes that lured
citizens into large homes, at adjustable interest rates with promises of
appreciation in the growing economy. We are all, especially those in finance,
real estate and politics, culpable. So, given these parameters, what would
President Richard Henry Lee Do?
President Lee was not a believer in
intrusive government. In fact, President Lee preferred a weak central
government believing privately held real estate, like politics, should be left
under the control of state and local entities. Richard Henry Lee would,
therefore, look to local and state leaders to brainstorm their way out of the
current mortgage crisis except that it is a product of federal tax policy.
President Lee would understand that the 1986 federal tax act and the
government’s unwillingness to regulate the unprecedented home mortgage lending
bonanza created the current crisis. Lee also understood that men instinctively
insure their own survival by acquiring the rudimentary elements necessary for
food, shelter and clothing. Lee and the other founders knew
that this
inherent nature of man fostered the burning desire to acquire land as real
estate provided the boundless opportunities to satisfy the most fundamental
physiological needs of citizens in a free society. This author believes Lee, had
he been faced with the current income tax system, would have never separated, in
the tax code, the quintessential investment of real estate from stocks, bonds,
commodities and other equities.
For over 20 years former Secretary of
the Treasury Donald Regan, an author of the 1986 Tax Act, and his Wall Street
successors have inartistically manipulated real estate markets with its
commercial loans, home mortgage inventions, REIT’s and other investment products
that were designed to be packaged and traded as equities. Clearly, they have
failed in their real estate directorship and it is time to turn real property
back over to Main Street and amend the Tax Act of 1986. This author’s offers the
following six step proposal as a “Neighborhood Recovery
Act” to reverse the mortgage and real estate bear market trends:
Neighborhood
Recovery Act:
First:
Move residential real estate gains and losses, (one to 4 family units) into both
the ordinary and portfolio tax categories for properties that are acquired in
the next 24 months by anyone including partnerships, LLCs and corporations.
Result: Investors and investment entities will start acquiring
residential real estate in a soft market as artificial value (prices higher then
the cost of the land plus cost to build) has already dissipated since one can’t
build many houses at their current asking prices let alone recapture the value
of the land.
Second:
Any
residential real estate acquired in the two year period would remain in this new
deducible income tax state for the life of property ownership by the investor or
investment entity. Result:
Investors and investment entities
will hold the real estate (limited flipping) as the non-expiring tax deductions
make long term ownership very attractive. A balance market will emerge as
investors and investment entities acquire residential real estate at what I
believe will be unprecedented levels (two years might be too long).
Third:
once the two year period has expired investment real estate gains and losses are
to be permanently shifted into the portfolio tax category.
Result: Real Estate will be on an equal footing with stocks, bonds, commodities
and other equities resulting in diverse investment portfolios managed by both
Wall and Main Streets.
Fourth:
Primary and secondary residence mortgage interest should only be deductable for
loans up to 80% of the original value of the initial acquisition value.
Result: This will retain the incentive for citizens to acquire homes
while thwarting borrowing on home equity beyond 80% of the original acquisition
price to take advantage of the interest tax deduction..
Fifth: Tax Credits should be issued as
incentives for entrepreneurial families to purchase mixed-use buildings to
expand their businesses and raise their families.
Result: This
measure will result in entrepreneurial families relocating out of the suburbs
and into cities revitalizing urban centers while checking suburban sprawl.
Sixth:
Repeal FASB 157 mark to market accounting and relax regulations to provide time
for financial institutions to liquidate assets to meet cash requirements.
Result: The repeal of mark to market accounting will provide
financial institutions with an accounting system favorable to a declining real
estate market will foster a stabilization of the financial markets which in
turn will help in the stabilization of the real estate markets.
[xi]
The real estate market
will continue to depreciate unless the tax code is changed as outlined
above. Congress needs to unleash the private sector, while it still has money.
Just
How large is this residential real estate challenge?
There has been an
average loss of about $60,000 per unit from Jan. 1, 2007 until April 1, 2008
or $5.43 trillion in equity losses in Over Leveraged detached single
family homes:
**These figures come from the 2007 American
Housing Survey (AHS) [PDF], a useful
information source on the quality of housing in the United States. Statistics
are provided for apartments, single-family homes, manufactured housing, new
construction and vacant housing units.
One can add
to this $5.43 trillion in equity losses another
$1 trillion in other residential real estate losses (townhomes, condos
etc ...). We are at $6.43 trillion in citizen
home equity losses nationally.
The oversupply of
Residential houses must be liquidated now utilizing free enterprise by a
change in the tax code to turn this depreciation into appreciation. Another
25% of equity losses (as opposed to a conservatively speaking a 10% equity
recovery) by homeowners will surely collapse the financial system of the
United States sending us into a deep depression.
$700 Billion Dollar
Bailout Proposal:
This author believes that injecting $700
billion in cash, as proposed by the Bush Administration, is a recipe for
disaster without meaningful real estate market corrections as noted above. The
proposed bailout act, as proposed, is merely a Wall Street Welfare handout aiding savvy
investors who misused capitalism. The providing of unprecedented taxpayer funds
to save their failing companies is unacceptable when market solutions abound
with adjustments in the 1986 Tax Code. Capitalism on the way up and socialism
on the way down is a dangerous message to instill into our youth in this free
society.
If passed, the 700 billion dollar
bailout package will result in much greater crisis two or three years down the
road (if it lasts that long). Any delays in enacting a free market solution to
the current real estate market crisis will compound the problem. Be assured
that if enacted, corporations will misuse the funds and millions of beleaguered
and newly angered homeowners will seek their share of the $700 billion in
government subsidies to compensate them for their equity losses. It is,
therefore, imperative that a market solution be adopted immediately to greatly
reduce the residential real estate inventory of this unprecedented seller’s
market. Be forewarned that this real estate/mortgage crisis must be reversed quickly
by free market forces. There are 78
million baby boomers aging at a break neck pace and health care is the next
Herculean challenge that is already devouring 24% of GDP in the current national
budget.
The People of the United States of
America can not afford $700 billion dollars to be squandered on a Wall Street
bailout when a very simple change in the 1986 Tax law will unleash
entrepreneurial market forces that will naturally reverse the oversupply of
residential real estate all across America.
What would President Richard Henry Lee
do? This is a difficult call as back in 1785 income tax, let alone its complex
bracketing system, was unconstitutional in both the 1st (1781) and 2nd
(1789) U.S. Constitutions. This author would wager that President Lee would be
inclined to eliminate the entire income taxing system by calling a third
constitutional convention. At this convention he would probably favor the
replacement the complex income taxing system with a simple national sales tax.
This is fairly far reaching speculation. This author, however, is 100% sure that Richard Henry Lee
would insist on the proper management and disposition of U.S. Federal Real
estate holdings as the Presidential signer of An Ordinance For
Ascertaining The Mode of Disposing Lands In The Western Territory.
President Lee viewed federal land as a
resource to be utilized to fund the government and retire the Revolutionary War
debt. He did not approve of foreign loans and taxing the people of the United
States to eliminate debt or subsidize the government. Lee would see the current
decade’s closing and sale of U.S. Military bases and forts as opportunity for
the federal coffers. This practice was nothing new to Lee or the Colonists as
the first widespread closing and downsizing of forts occurred just after the
British expelled the French from North America in 1763. The surplus land and
buildings were sold then, much like today, to the highest bidders. The U.S.
Military is not alone in its land liquidation. For instance, from 1998 to
present the U.S.
Bureau of Land Management conducted real estate sales on numerous large desert
parcels in the Las Vegas, Nevada marketplace. The result was considered, by most real
estate experts, a huge success netting unprecedented prices for BLM desert
property. Richard Henry Lee, I believe, would have seen these sales as an opportunity
lost.
As a visionary and real estate
entrepreneur Lee would hold that 21st Century BLM, Pentagon and other
federal property sales are as shortsighted and archaic as his Western Land
Ordinance of 1785. Today, Lee would call for a much sounder real estate
liquidation model, Land Leases. Bill Gates didn't sell MSDOS to IBM, he
leased it, and now the company dwarfs Big Blue. China didn't sell Hong
Kong to the British, they leased it, and now they have inherited one of the
world's most vibrant cities. Lee would quickly grasp this and under his
administration all future federal real estate transactions would be 21st
Century Land Leases.
Long-term land leases would net the
federal government capital windfalls while alleviating the nation of costly
maintenance and repair of vacant federal buildings and property. Most
importantly, after 50 or 60 years the improved real estate would revert back to
the United States to be leased again, returned to military use or set aside for
other public purposes. The possibilities of public reuse of the land are
endless for future generations. Additionally, the monthly or yearly leased cash
flow would generate steady income for the Pentagon, BLM or National Park Service
while their real estate holdings are improved for future federal use.
Moreover, Lee would
capitalize on the land leasing opportunities surrounding the federal government
interstate road systems. The acquisition or use of existing interstate real
estate can be profitably set aside for expansion by leasing “Interchange Land
Parcels” to retailers, restaurants, oil companies and real estate
developers. Lee, I believe, would also invest a portion of the land lease
proceeds in long-term contractor road and bridge maintenance agreements.
Preventative contractual road maintenance would extend the life of the nation’s
infrastructure minimizing costly re-construction.
Richard
Henry Lee, this author is sure,
would implement land lease policies on a national scale to reduce taxes, retire
the national debt and provide funds for real estate preservation if he was a 21st
Century President of the United States.
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